Monday, September 8, 2008

Best Case/Worst Case Scenario

For those that don't know, WVU was pounded by ECU (Eastern Carolina University)24-3 this past Saturday. ECU upset both Virginia Tech and West Virginia on back to back weekends to start the college football season. So lets take a look at the remainder of the ECU football schedule and see whats in store for them...

Best Case Scenario
ECU has started off with a 2-0 record against two legitimate college football teams. Both WVU and VT were supposed to contend for titles this year. So, lets say ECU is a contender this season. The ECU schedule looks fairly easy from here on out. This week against Tulane is a win, leaving the Pirates with a 3-0 record when they play North Carolina State and Houston. I would say that these are wins. NC State and Houston aren't pushovers and could be upset games, but for not if ECU is a legitimate team, they are wins. So that leaves ECU with a 5-0 record heading into the game with Virginia. Virginia was picked to finish with a record of 5-7 according to Sports Illustrated, so this I would say is a win. ECU is now 6-0 heading into their game with Memphis which is a win. UCF is next on the schedule and could cause some problems. UCF just played Big East contender USF pretty tough this past weekend, so this could be a loss, but I am thinking that ECU's momentum takes them to another win. In fact I think ECU could probably win out with victories over Marshall, Southern Miss, UAB and UTEP. This would make ECU 12-0 heading into the Conference USA championhip game against Tulsa. Given the momentum ECU has from the start of the season they beat Tulsa to finish 13-0 and maybe have a chance at a New Years Day bowl.

Worse Case Scenario
ECU was picked to go to the Conference USA championship game, so we'll say they still get to go, but just not with the record everyone thought they would have. After starting off 2-0, ECU picks up wins over Tulane, NC State and Houston to have a 5-0 record heading into the Virginia game. Virginia beats ECU, in what would probably be an upset to leave the Pirates with a 5-1 record. ECU then falls into a roller coaster trend for the next several weeks, beating Memphis, falling to UCF, beating Marshall then losing to Southern Miss to have a record of 7-3. UAB pulls of another upset and then ECU defeats UTEP to finish the season with a record of 8-4. They would fail to make the Conf. USA championship due to their loss to Southern Miss, ending their season with a below average bowl.

The Prediction
ECU's 2-0 start is no fluke. They will surely win at least 11 games this year. Predicted to go 9-3, I would say that two of those losses were supposed to be against VT and WVU. They roll through the season with UCF being their only tough remaining game. Meeting Tulsa in the Conf. USA championhip will show the kind of team Skip Holtz has. I say 12-0 and Conf. USA champs.

At some point this week, I wil break down the Notre Dame schedule and the remaining WVU games in another best case/worst case scenario. Stay tuned...

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